| dc.description.abstract | World crude oil shocks is one of elements which is concerned a lot by analysts, investors, enterprises and other participants in the global economy. Thus, analyzing its impacts on economies, industries and other aspects is very important.
This thesis is conducted to examine the relationship between the world oil price to two industries which mostly use and produce crude oil and oil products as primary input and output (Transportation and Oil Industry). The result indicates that world crude oil and selected industrial index are cointegrated. This means there exist a relationship between these variables. However, we can not model this relationship by regression. The null hypothesis of coefficient of world oil price equal zero do not be rejected since p-value is much higher than 0.05 (significance level). Therefore, it is impossible to predict two industrial Index mentioned above based on world oil price. This may be explained by the government policies. The government control and decide domestic oil price to keep it stable. For example, when world oil price reduce much, the domestic oil price and other products do not decline at the same rate or vice versa. So the business results do not present immediately impacts of oil price changes. Besides, other elements such as exchange rate, inflation rate, GDP may be much dominant than world oil price to business of these two industries. | en_US |
