| dc.description.abstract | The purpose of this thesis paper is to assess the effectiveness of market timing models using moving average by applying them into the cases of a stock market’s index and a gold market’s index in Vietnam and testing the results by statistical and financial indicators. Although technical analysis strategies, specifically the moving average system, are widely believed in many countries to be profitable in various financial markets; in Vietnam, they seem to show their effectiveness more clearly in
the stock market, that means a highly volatile market, rather than in the gold market.
By that side, in applying market timing models using moving average into a highly volatile market, short-term models turn out to be more profitable than long-term ones.
In applying those models into a lowly volatile market, most lagged models become more effective. Moreover, in both cases, the short-term versions of the model using crossovers between a line of periodically closing prices and a simple moving average
line turns out to be the most effective model. | en_US |
