Determinants Of Vietnamese Product Export To Asean Members Period 2012-2021

Abstract

Each nation must establish connections with other countries on various critical matters related to state affairs, with trade being one of the crucial aspects. A country's inability to fulfill the needs of its population necessitates increased involvement in international trade. Consequently, exports play a vital role in the economic growth of numerous developing nations. They serve as a major source of foreign exchange income, alleviating pressure on the balance of payments and creating employment opportunities through the exportation of goods and services. This study aims to analyze the influence of GDP growth, exchange rate, distance, inflation and the importing country's export volume on Vietnam exports with ASEAN countries and 9 trading partners (Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Philippines, Malaysia, Myanmar, Thailand, and Singapore.) This study uses the Robust and PPML method. The results of this study indicate that there is an influence between the independent variable and the dependent variable. This is indicated by the exchange rate is the only variable that has a significant negative relationship with export value in Vietnam based on both models, while the export volume of the importing country and the distance between Vietnam and importing nations exert substantial positive influences on export value in Vietnam. Nevertheless, there is no significant association between the inflation rate and export value in Vietnam. Additionally, concerning GDP growth, only the PPLM model anticipates a substantial positive influence on Vietnam's export value from the GDP growth of the trading partner, whereas the robust model does not identify a significant impact of the trading partner's GDP growth on Vietnam's export value in the period 2012 to 2021