A logistic regression of macroeconomic factors to stock index supporting investor purchasing decision - The case study of Ho Chi Minh stock exchange market (Hose)

Abstract

From 2008 to 2014, the Vietnam stock market was demonstrated as sensitive place of investment, not only the potential investors lacked off capability to use the information, but also the available investors rarely use it for creating a sustainable income. In this research, author aim at seeking the significant relationship between macroeconomic information and VN-index of Ho Chi Minh stock exchange market (HOSE), in order to establish the forecasting equation model for investment. As a result, this research is conducted through three main stages as testing the stationary of the data, figuring out the affect of macroeconomic factors on VN-index, and establishing the logistic regression model for investment forecasting. Keyword: VN-index, HOSE, logistic regression model, macroeconomic factors, stationary testing